Important dates (purple dashed lines):
(green dashed lines):
Note: due to lag time between exposure and final positive test, effects of changes are typically observed about two weeks after event.
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Not yet coded
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 21 2020 | 407 | 11647 | 2 |
| July 22 2020 | 409 | 11866 | 2 |
| July 23 2020 | 421 | 12322 | 3 |
| July 24 2020 | 423 | 12504 | 3 |
| July 25 2020 | 433 | 12692 | 3 |
| July 26 2020 | 433 | 12861 | 3 |
| July 27 2020 | 436 | 13006 | 3 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | Hospitalization Yes | Hospitalization Unknown | Icu Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 21 2020 | 44135 | 750562 | 859 | 4194 | 14889 | 838 |
| July 22 2020 | 44847 | 764630 | 865 | 4225 | 14961 | 848 |
| July 23 2020 | 45899 | 778842 | 878 | 4273 | 15405 | 857 |
| July 24 2020 | 46917 | 795280 | 878 | 4327 | 15784 | 861 |
| July 25 2020 | 47870 | 808528 | 891 | 4368 | 16112 | 868 |
| July 26 2020 | 48827 | 817549 | 892 | 4394 | 16667 | 870 |
| July 27 2020 | 49417 | 823905 | 893 | 4420 | 16975 | 872 |
Other information:
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with rare cases being long-term / on-going. A reasonable approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 14-16 days. We will go with this standard, and adjust as more precise information becomes available.
https://topic.newsbreak.com/covid-19.html?zip=19934&s=dmg_local_briefing.web2
Re-opening Trends: that is, why didn't the first wave end?
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 20 days, are approximately 9.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.45 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-08-17 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1132"