Daily Plots

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Eau Claire

Important dates (purple dashed lines):

  • May 14: First day after Stay-at-Home order reversed by state Supreme Court
  • May 25: Memorial Day (typical celebrations and/or vacations)
  • July 4: Independence Day (typical celebrations and/or vacations)

(green dashed lines):

  • March 25: Stay-at-Home order put in place
  • July 20: Large national stores putting mask mandates in place

Note: due to lag time between exposure and final positive test, effects of changes are typically observed about two weeks after event.

Wisconsin

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

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Numeric Summaries

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Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS
July 21 2020 407 11647 2
July 22 2020 409 11866 2
July 23 2020 421 12322 3
July 24 2020 423 12504 3
July 25 2020 433 12692 3
July 26 2020 433 12861 3
July 27 2020 436 13006 3

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS Hospitalization Yes Hospitalization Unknown Icu Yes
July 21 2020 44135 750562 859 4194 14889 838
July 22 2020 44847 764630 865 4225 14961 848
July 23 2020 45899 778842 878 4273 15405 857
July 24 2020 46917 795280 878 4327 15784 861
July 25 2020 47870 808528 891 4368 16112 868
July 26 2020 48827 817549 892 4394 16667 870
July 27 2020 49417 823905 893 4420 16975 872

Cumulative Plots

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Active

Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with rare cases being long-term / on-going. A reasonable approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 14-16 days. We will go with this standard, and adjust as more precise information becomes available.

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 20 days, are approximately 9.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.45 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-08-17 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1132"