Daily Plots
Column
Eau Claire
Important dates (purple dashed lines):
- May 14: First day after Stay-at-Home order reversed by state Supreme Court
- May 25: Memorial Day (typical celebrations and/or vacations)
- July 4: Independence Day (typical celebrations and/or vacations)
(green dashed lines):
- March 25: Stay-at-Home order put in place
- July 20: Large national stores putting mask mandates in place
Note: due to lag time between exposure and final positive test, effects of changes are typically observed about two weeks after event.
Wisconsin
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Column
Chart 1
Not yet coded
Column
Chart 2
Chart 3
Numeric Summaries
Column
Eau Claire
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 21 2020 | 407 | 11647 | 2 |
| July 22 2020 | 409 | 11866 | 2 |
| July 23 2020 | 421 | 12322 | 3 |
| July 24 2020 | 423 | 12504 | 3 |
| July 25 2020 | 433 | 12692 | 3 |
| July 26 2020 | 433 | 12861 | 3 |
| July 27 2020 | 436 | 13006 | 3 |
Wisconsin
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | Hospitalization Yes | Hospitalization Unknown | Icu Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 21 2020 | 44135 | 750562 | 859 | 4194 | 14889 | 838 |
| July 22 2020 | 44847 | 764630 | 865 | 4225 | 14961 | 848 |
| July 23 2020 | 45899 | 778842 | 878 | 4273 | 15405 | 857 |
| July 24 2020 | 46917 | 795280 | 878 | 4327 | 15784 | 861 |
| July 25 2020 | 47870 | 808528 | 891 | 4368 | 16112 | 868 |
| July 26 2020 | 48827 | 817549 | 892 | 4394 | 16667 | 870 |
| July 27 2020 | 49417 | 823905 | 893 | 4420 | 16975 | 872 |
Column
Wisconsin
Other information:
Cumulative Plots
Row
Chart 1
Row
Chart 2
Chart 3
Active
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with rare cases being long-term / on-going. A reasonable approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 14-16 days. We will go with this standard, and adjust as more precise information becomes available.
References
Column
Data Sources
Reliable Updated Visuals
- Johns Hopkins dashboard (world, national, and county levels)
- National
https://topic.newsbreak.com/covid-19.html?zip=19934&s=dmg_local_briefing.web2
- Wisconsin DHS website, with interactive graphs; subsettable by county
Re-opening Trends: that is, why didn't the first wave end?
Column
Visual and code references for selected plots
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
- Github repository by coolbaby0208
- Covid Act Now https://covidactnow.org/?s=58173
- A regional breakdown of the United States COVID-19 curve https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/heglc5/oc_a_regional_breakdown_of_the_united_states/
- Minnesota updates from Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesota/comments/h9j6pj/covid19_update_up_222_230_by_mdh_active_2780/ and https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesota/comments/hfovhg/625_update_34123_positives_360_1406_deaths_9/
- Wisconsin updates (from Redditor unknown-and-alone)
- Wisconsin updates
- https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/hjwthw/oc_countylevel_covid19_case_growth_animation_in/
- https://www.cpp.edu/~clange/covid19/Covid19ReportCaliforniaComp.html
Scientific References for Common Questions
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
- Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis
- Background for modelling: A modelling framework to assess the likely effectiveness of facemasks in combination with ‘lock-down’ in managing the COVID-19 pandemic
- To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic
- Face Masks Considerably Reduce COVID-19 Cases in Germany: A Synthetic Control Method Approach
A couple more in the works:
- Face mask wearing rate predicts country's COVID-19 death rates
- Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks (Update June 15, 2020)
- Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection for prevention of COVID-19
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Modeling
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 20 days, are approximately 9.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.45 power."[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-08-17 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1132"